Week ending September 5, 2026
ABSORPTION IN COLORADO / SAN LUIS VALLEY
Unusually heavy movement is being met with rising prices — demand is taking everything the pipeline can deliver. Supportive of price; quote with confidence and do not discount to move volume. This combination sits in the most extreme 2% of weeks on record for this area at this point in the season.
In 24 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 25% of them; of the weeks that moved, 89% went the signalled way, averaging +12.1% over the following four weeks.
Both crops are being quoted: the 2026 crop opened Aug 10 and prices $3.50 over the 2025 crop across 13 matching item(s) (+20.7%). Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 11, +$1.77 against the old crop.
Growing areas
| Area | Index | Band | Momentum | Price signal | Size spread | Shipped, season | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | 70 | Tightening | -23 | ↑↑ Strong Up | $15.60 widening | — | — |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | 56 | Mildly tight | 37 | → Neutral | $9.20 widening | — | — |
| Wisconsin | 42 | Mildly long | 80 | ↓↓ Strong Down | $11.33 | — | — |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | 52 | Balanced | 75 | ↑ Up | $14.34 widening | — | — |
| Red River Valley | 4 | Severe oversupply | 92 | ↓↓ Strong Down | — | — | — |
Year-ago figures compare the same week of the marketing season (week 8 of this season against week 8 of last), and season to date is cut at that same week.
Idaho
Index 70 · Tightening ↑↑ Strong UpShipping below last year's rate with prices firming — restraint is supporting the market.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 652,400 | — | — |
| Aug 29 | 705,800 | +8.2% | — |
| Sep 5 | 577,800 | -18.1% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 22 | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s moved | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | +0.00 | +43.1% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s moved | 37.40 | 40.20 | 42.60 | 43.00 | +5.60 | +55.9% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s moved | 37.40 | 40.20 | 42.60 | 43.00 | +5.60 | +56.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 35.80 | 39.60 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +5.20 | +55.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s moved | 35.80 | 38.40 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +5.20 | +55.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s moved | 26.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | +0.00 | +47.2% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags non size A moved | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | +0.00 | +32.7% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb mesh sacks non size A moved | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | +0.00 | +29.9% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags non size A moved | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 | +40.4% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb mesh sacks non size A moved | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | +0.00 | +36.1% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s | 30.00 | 30.60 | 31.00 | 31.00 | +1.00 | +46.5% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 10 oz minimum | 30.40 | 32.00 | 32.00 | 32.00 | +1.60 | +43.4% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 6 oz minimum | 19.00 | 19.50 | 19.50 | 19.50 | +0.50 | +52.5% |
In 35 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 43% of them; of the weeks that moved, 85% went the signalled way, averaging +8.7% over the following four weeks.
Colorado / San Luis Valley
Index 56 · Mildly tight → NeutralShipping heavily with prices holding flat — the pipeline is filling.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 132,400 | — | — |
| Aug 29 | 44,700 | -66.2% | — |
| Sep 5 | 288,000 | +544.3% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 22 | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s moved | — | 37.00 | 36.00 | 36.00 | -1.00 | +32.8% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags size A moved | — | 20.50 | 20.20 | 20.00 | -0.50 | — |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags size A moved | — | 18.50 | 18.20 | 18.00 | -0.50 | — |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s | — | 28.25 | 28.60 | 29.00 | +0.75 | +31.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s | — | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +36.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s | — | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +36.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s | — | 39.50 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +1.50 | +36.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s | — | 39.25 | 40.60 | 41.00 | +1.75 | +36.7% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | — | 29.00 | 29.60 | 30.00 | +1.00 | +25.6% |
In 42 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 55% of them; of the weeks that moved, 55% went the signalled way, averaging +0.3% over the following four weeks.
Wisconsin
Index 42 · Mildly long ↓↓ Strong DownShipping heavily while prices ease — volume is outrunning demand.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 87,100 | — | — |
| Aug 29 | 129,900 | +49.1% | — |
| Sep 5 | 170,700 | +31.4% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 22 | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s moved | 27.00 | 26.20 | 24.00 | 24.00 | -3.00 | -3.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s moved | 39.00 | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | +1.00 | +12.8% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s moved | 39.00 | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | +1.00 | +12.8% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 39.00 | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | +1.00 | +12.8% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s moved | 39.00 | 39.60 | 41.00 | 40.00 | +1.00 | +12.8% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags size A moved | 24.00 | 23.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | -2.00 | +0.1% |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags size A moved | 22.00 | 21.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | -2.00 | +0.2% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s | 37.00 | 36.20 | 35.00 | 35.00 | -2.00 | +9.6% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | +0.00 | +6.7% |
In 51 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 65% of them; of the weeks that moved, 56% went the signalled way, averaging +0.7% over the following four weeks.
Washington / Columbia Basin
Index 52 · Balanced ↑ UpShipping heavily and prices are still firming — demand is absorbing the volume.
| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 167,600 | — | — |
| Aug 29 | 173,500 | +3.5% | — |
| Sep 5 | 184,000 | +6.1% | — |
| Item, FOB $/cwt | Aug 22 | Aug 29 | Sep 5 | Current week | Change | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 40s moved | 35.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 41.00 | +6.00 | +47.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 50s moved | 35.00 | 40.00 | 40.00 | 41.00 | +6.00 | +47.3% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 60s moved | 34.00 | 36.00 | 36.00 | 40.00 | +6.00 | +44.8% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 70s moved | 34.00 | 36.00 | 36.00 | 40.00 | +6.00 | +44.8% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 90s moved | 23.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | +0.00 | +24.9% |
| RUSSET 50 lb sacks 10 oz minimum moved | 17.00 | 18.50 | 19.00 | 19.00 | +2.00 | +18.8% |
| RUSSET baled 10 5-lb film bags moved | 14.00 | 14.00 | 13.50 | 11.50 | -2.50 | — |
| RUSSET baled 5 10-lb film bags moved | 12.00 | 12.00 | 11.50 | 9.50 | -2.50 | — |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 100s | 21.00 | 21.00 | 22.00 | 22.00 | +1.00 | +29.0% |
| RUSSET 50 lb cartons 80s | 27.00 | 27.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 | +1.00 | +24.9% |
In 55 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 53% of them; of the weeks that moved, 69% went the signalled way, averaging +2.0% over the following four weeks.
Red River Valley
Index 4 · Severe oversupply ↓↓ Strong Down| cwt | on the week | a year ago | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 0 | — | — |
| Aug 29 | 0 | — | — |
| Sep 5 | 64,000 | — | — |
In 308 comparable weeks since 2021, prices held in 54% of them; of the weeks that moved, 77% went the signalled way, averaging -2.4% over the following four weeks.
Delivered cost
FOB plus freight into each destination, compared on one matched carton. This routinely disagrees with the FOB table, which is the entire reason it exists: an area quoting under Idaho is not the cheaper option into Boston if its lane costs more.
| Destination | Origin | FOB | Freight | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Idaho | $40.71 | $12.32 modelled | $53.03 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $9.71 modelled | $50.42 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.57 modelled | $47.28 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $14.93 modelled | $52.07 | |
| Baltimore | Idaho | $40.71 | $13.81 modelled | $54.52 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $12.10 modelled | $52.81 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.33 modelled | $47.04 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $16.11 modelled | $53.25 | |
| Boston | Idaho | $40.71 | $15.24 modelled | $55.95 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $14.01 modelled | $54.72 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $7.58 modelled | $48.29 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $17.30 modelled | $54.44 | |
| Charlotte | Idaho | $40.71 | $13.15 modelled | $53.86 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $10.85 modelled | $51.56 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.55 modelled | $47.26 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $15.68 modelled | $52.82 | |
| Chicago | Idaho | $40.71 | $9.66 modelled | $50.37 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $8.19 modelled | $48.90 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $2.55 modelled | $43.26 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $12.00 modelled | $49.14 | |
| Dallas | Idaho | $40.71 | $8.75 modelled | $49.46 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.71 | $5.43 modelled | $46.14 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $7.30 modelled | $48.01 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $11.44 modelled | $48.58 | |
| Denver | Idaho | $40.71 | $4.22 modelled | $44.93 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.71 | $2.27 modelled | $42.98 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $7.02 modelled | $47.73 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $6.92 modelled | $44.06 | |
| Detroit | Idaho | $40.71 | $11.18 modelled | $51.89 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $9.82 modelled | $50.53 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $3.61 modelled | $44.32 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $13.42 modelled | $50.56 | |
| Houston | Idaho | $40.71 | $10.21 modelled | $50.92 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.71 | $6.79 modelled | $47.50 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $8.45 modelled | $49.16 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $12.88 modelled | $50.02 | |
| Los Angeles | Idaho | $40.71 | $6.18 modelled | $46.89 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $6.09 modelled | $46.80 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $12.71 modelled | $53.42 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $6.94 modelled | $44.08 | |
| Miami | Idaho | $40.71 | $16.00 modelled | $56.71 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $12.98 modelled | $53.69 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $10.71 modelled | $51.42 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $18.69 modelled | $55.83 | |
| Minneapolis | Idaho | $40.71 | $7.55 modelled | $48.26 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $6.92 modelled | $47.63 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $2.44 modelled | $43.15 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $9.70 modelled | $46.84 | |
| New York | Idaho | $40.71 | $14.48 modelled | $55.19 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $13.00 modelled | $53.71 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.85 modelled | $47.56 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $16.67 modelled | $53.81 | |
| Orlando | Idaho | $40.71 | $14.76 modelled | $55.47 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $11.85 modelled | $52.56 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $9.30 modelled | $50.01 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $17.43 modelled | $54.57 | |
| Philadelphia | Idaho | $40.71 | $14.20 modelled | $54.91 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $12.60 modelled | $53.31 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.63 modelled | $47.34 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $16.44 modelled | $53.58 | |
| Phoenix | Idaho | $40.71 | $5.92 modelled | $46.63 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $4.17 modelled | $44.88 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $10.91 modelled | $51.62 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $7.72 modelled | $44.86 | |
| Riverside | Idaho | $40.71 | $6.09 modelled | $46.80 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $5.81 modelled | $46.52 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $12.46 modelled | $53.17 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $7.01 modelled | $44.15 | |
| San Antonio | Idaho | $40.71 | $9.57 modelled | $50.28 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley best | $40.71 | $6.07 modelled | $46.78 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $9.04 modelled | $49.75 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $12.18 modelled | $49.32 | |
| San Diego | Idaho | $40.71 | $6.61 modelled | $47.32 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $6.00 modelled | $46.71 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $12.72 modelled | $53.43 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $7.60 modelled | $44.74 | |
| San Francisco | Idaho | $40.71 | $5.77 modelled | $46.48 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $7.25 modelled | $47.96 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $13.23 modelled | $53.94 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $5.33 modelled | $42.47 | |
| Seattle | Idaho | $40.71 | $5.09 modelled | $45.80 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $8.51 modelled | $49.22 | |
| Wisconsin | $40.71 | $11.97 modelled | $52.68 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin best | $37.14 | $2.40 modelled | $39.54 | |
| St. Louis | Idaho | $40.71 | $9.27 modelled | $49.98 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $7.12 modelled | $47.83 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $3.93 modelled | $44.64 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $11.82 modelled | $48.96 | |
| Tampa | Idaho | $40.71 | $14.60 modelled | $55.31 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $11.60 modelled | $52.31 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $9.42 modelled | $50.13 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $17.28 modelled | $54.42 | |
| Washington DC | Idaho | $40.71 | $13.73 modelled | $54.44 |
| Colorado / San Luis Valley | $40.71 | $11.97 modelled | $52.68 | |
| Wisconsin best | $40.71 | $6.30 modelled | $47.01 | |
| Washington / Columbia Basin | $37.14 | $16.05 modelled | $53.19 |
Not compared: Red River Valley — does not quote russet cartons currently
Only Central Minnesota is quoting yellow cartons this week, so there is nothing to compare it against yet.
Not compared: Idaho — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Colorado / San Luis Valley — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Wisconsin — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Washington / Columbia Basin — does not quote yellow cartons currently; Red River Valley — does not quote yellow cartons currently
Only Central Minnesota is quoting round red cartons this week, so there is nothing to compare it against yet.
Not compared: Idaho — does not quote round red cartons currently; Colorado / San Luis Valley — does not quote round red cartons currently; Wisconsin — does not quote round red cartons currently; Washington / Columbia Basin — does not quote round red cartons currently; Red River Valley — does not quote round red cartons currently
Expected movement
| Week ending | Expected | Range | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | 1,570,700 | 1,392,600 – 1,702,400 | 1,538,900 |
| Sep 19 | 1,578,500 | 1,399,500 – 1,710,900 | 1,546,500 |
| Sep 26 | 1,557,700 | 1,381,100 – 1,688,400 | 1,526,200 |
| Oct 3 | 1,647,700 | 1,460,800 – 1,785,900 | 1,614,300 |
The range is the week-to-week spread in the season-over-season relationship, not a confidence interval, and not a probability. Last season's movement at the same weeks, scaled to this season running 2.1% ahead of last season over the reference weeks; the range is the week-to-week spread in that season-over-season relationship.
The weeks just gone, nationally
| Week ending | Movement | On the week | A year ago | vs last season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | 1,356,400 | — | — | -9.5% |
| Aug 29 | 1,403,100 | +3.4% | — | +5.6% |
| Sep 5 | 1,631,200 | +16.3% | — | +10.6% |
The read
THE LAST THREE WEEKS
The national movement has shown a steady increase, with the week ending Aug 22 showing a 9.5% drop below last season, followed by a 3.4% rebound the next week and then a 16.3% jump in the most recent week. Season-to-date totals are 8.2% ahead of last season, and the pace is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.
In Idaho, movement has been volatile, with the week ending Aug 22 showing a 20.5% drop below last season, followed by a 2.7% rebound the next week and then a 16.4% drop in the most recent week. Prices have been firming across the board, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at +5.4%. The pace of movement is running 3.8% ahead of the balance-sheet fresh supply, indicating that the area is moving product faster than its inventory supports.
In San Luis Valley, movement has been heavily above last season, with the week ending Aug 22 showing a 67.6% increase, followed by a 66.2% drop the next week and then a 544.3% rebound in the most recent week. Prices have been firming, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at +1.6%. The pace of movement is running 37.5% ahead of the balance-sheet fresh supply, indicating that the area is moving product faster than its inventory supports.
In Wisconsin, movement has been heavily above last season, with the week ending Aug 22 showing a 16.3% drop below last season, followed by a 49.1% rebound the next week and then a 31.4% jump in the most recent week. Prices have been easing, with the average price decrease over the three-week window standing at -2.6%. The pace of movement is running 25.1% ahead of the balance-sheet fresh supply, indicating that the area is moving product faster than its inventory supports.
In Columbia Basin, movement has been steadily above last season, with the week ending Aug 22 showing an 11.3% increase, followed by a 3.5% jump the next week and then a 6.1% rise in the most recent week. Prices have been firming, with the average price increase over the three-week window standing at +5.1%. The pace of movement is running 10.7% ahead of the balance-sheet fresh supply, indicating that the area is moving product faster than its inventory supports.
In Red River Valley, movement has been extremely volatile, with the week ending Aug 22 showing a 100.0% drop below last season, followed by a 100.0% drop the next week and then a 190.9% rebound in the most recent week. Prices have not been reported for this area in the window. The pace of movement is running at a level that suggests severe oversupply, with the Market Pressure Index at 4 out of 100.
ITEMS AND SIZES
In Idaho, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $21.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $43.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In San Luis Valley, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $12.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $41.00 and the 100s cartons at $29.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In Wisconsin, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $16.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $40.00 and the 100s cartons at $24.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
In Columbia Basin, the largest price increases have been seen in the large end of the size ladder, with the 40s, 50s, and 60s cartons showing the most significant gains. The large-over-small spread has widened to $19.00, with the 40s cartons priced at $41.00 and the 100s cartons at $22.00. This widening spread indicates that size is becoming scarcer in the large end of the ladder.
THE CROP TURN
In Idaho, both crops are being quoted: the 2026 crop opened Aug 10 and prices are $3.50 over the 2025 crop across 13 matching items (+20.7%). Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 11, +$1.77 against the old crop.
In San Luis Valley, the changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Aug 14 and the 2026 crop is +$10.19 against it across 7 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Sep 2, +$2.27 against the old crop.
In Wisconsin, the changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Aug 7 and the 2026 crop is +$3.27 against it across 9 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 19, -$0.85 against the old crop.
In Columbia Basin, the changeover has run: the 2025 crop was last quoted Jul 31 and the 2026 crop is +$4.59 against it across 8 matching items. Last season the new crop was first quoted Aug 4, +$1.20 against the old crop.
WHAT THE MODEL SEES
Idaho
Expected weekly movement ahead:
- w/e Sep 12: expect 705.6 (range 637.2–822.7), 22.1% UP FROM the week before (and 9.3% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 13 last season at 801.3, so this week is expected 11.9% BELOW that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 19: expect 676.0 (range 610.5–788.2), 4.2% DOWN FROM the week before (and 4.8% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 20 last season at 767.7, so this week is expected 11.9% BELOW that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 26: expect 585.0 (range 528.3–682.2), 13.5% DOWN FROM the week before (and 9.3% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 27 last season at 664.4, so this week is expected 12.0% BELOW that year-ago week
- w/e Oct 3: expect 684.7 (range 618.4–798.4), 17.0% UP FROM the week before (and 6.1% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Oct 4 last season at 777.6, so this week is expected 11.9% BELOW that year-ago week
The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 3.8%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
San Luis Valley
Expected weekly movement ahead:
- w/e Sep 12: expect 254.7 (range 242.0–291.8), 11.6% DOWN FROM the week before (and 64.3% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 13 last season at 174.1, so this week is expected 46.3% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 19: expect 350.3 (range 332.8–401.2), 37.5% UP FROM the week before (and 126.0% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 20 last season at 239.4, so this week is expected 46.3% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 26: expect 406.1 (range 385.9–465.2), 15.9% UP FROM the week before (and 162.0% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 27 last season at 277.6, so this week is expected 46.3% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Oct 3: expect 429.1 (range 407.7–491.6), 5.7% UP FROM the week before (and 176.8% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Oct 4 last season at 293.3, so this week is expected 46.3% ABOVE that year-ago week
The four-week model currently favours neutral pricing. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 37.5%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
Wisconsin
Expected weekly movement ahead:
- w/e Sep 12: expect 184.6 (range 133.1–228.8), 8.1% UP FROM the week before (and 42.9% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 13 last season at 159.1, so this week is expected 16.0% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 19: expect 182.3 (range 131.4–225.9), roughly level with the week before (and 41.1% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 20 last season at 157.1, so this week is expected 16.0% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 26: expect 195.9 (range 141.2–242.7), 7.5% UP FROM the week before (and 51.6% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 27 last season at 168.8, so this week is expected 16.1% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Oct 3: expect 169.8 (range 122.4–210.4), 13.3% DOWN FROM the week before (and 31.4% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Oct 4 last season at 146.3, so this week is expected 16.1% ABOVE that year-ago week
The four-week model currently favours softer pricing. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 25.1%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
Columbia Basin
Expected weekly movement ahead:
- w/e Sep 12: expect 140.8 (range 126.2–164.0), 23.5% DOWN FROM the week before (and 19.5% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 13 last season at 113.4, so this week is expected 24.2% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 19: expect 148.5 (range 133.1–173.0), 5.5% UP FROM the week before (and 15.1% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 20 last season at 119.6, so this week is expected 24.2% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 26: expect 151.9 (range 136.1–176.9), 2.3% UP FROM the week before (and 13.2% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 27 last season at 122.3, so this week is expected 24.2% ABOVE that year-ago week
- w/e Oct 3: expect 158.7 (range 142.2–184.9), 4.5% UP FROM the week before (and 9.3% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Oct 4 last season at 127.8, so this week is expected 24.2% ABOVE that year-ago week
The four-week model currently favours firmer pricing. At the current shipment pace, modeled movement would exceed the balance-sheet fresh allocation by 10.7%, so the present pace is running ahead of the remaining supply assumption.
RED RIVER VALLEY
Expected weekly movement ahead:
- w/e Sep 12: expect 11.9 (range 0.0–48.3), 81.4% DOWN FROM the week before (and 44.1% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 13 last season at 16.6, so this week is expected 28.3% BELOW that year-ago week
- w/e Sep 26: expect 24.5 (range 0.0–99.8), 105.9% UP FROM the week before (and 15.0% above the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Sep 27 last season at 34.3, so this week is expected 28.6% BELOW that year-ago week
- w/e Oct 3: expect 9.6 (range 0.0–39.3), 60.8% DOWN FROM the week before (and 54.9% below the three-week average); the year-ago comparison is the week ending Oct 4 last season at 13.5, so this week is expected 28.9% BELOW that year-ago week
The four-week model currently favours softer pricing.
WATCHING NEXT
- Idaho’s large-over-small spread has widened to $21.00, and continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
- San Luis Valley’s flat prices may give way if the pace of movement continues to rise.
- Wisconsin’s large-over-small spread has widened to $16.00, and continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
- Columbia Basin’s large-over-small spread has widened to $19.00, and continued widening would indicate further pressure on larger sizes.
- The week ending Sep 12 carries a holiday pull (Labor Day pull), which may pull grocery volume forward over the ten days before the holiday.
Agent E. · September 10, 2026
Method and limits
Every indicator is a percentile against the same growing area's own history at the same point in the season, never an absolute threshold. Idaho in October and Wisconsin in February are not comparable on raw volume or raw dollars, and a fixed cut-off would simply re-report the seasonal calendar as though it were news.
Percentiles are ranked against 7 seasons of history. Derived from USDA AMS movement (IF_FV170), shipping-point prices (IF_FV130) and truck rates (FVWTRK). No private order-book data is used.
Market information, not trading advice. Figures are estimates derived from public USDA data and may be revised.
No opinion on direction, no regional preference, and no private order-book data. What is not in any edition →